Breeders' Cup picks for Friday races: Betting expert horse racing

Breeders’ Cup weekend begins Friday. Not only is this the richest weekend in North America as far as purses go but also one of the best opportunities to make a big score as a horseplayer. Twenty-two races across two days with 14 World Championships races definitely gets the heart racing.

Breeders’ Cup Friday features 10 races at Del Mar Thoroughbred Club with the entire back half of the card Breeders’ Cup 2-year-old races. Let’s get to it!

PICKS: 13-14-7-8

I was surprised to see the Speakeasy Stakes so disrespected by the Breeders’ Cup selection committee. The local prep for this I thought was a solid edition of the race with No. 13 Pali Kitten just getting to No. 14 Smash It in a fast race.

With the scratch of No. 1 Out On Bail, we know for sure Pali Kitten is getting in, but I’d want to use both Nos. 13 and 14 to start this all-Breeders’ Cup Pick 5 because it’s no secret I’m a believer in the Speakeasy!

International-based horses have done well in this race, so of course have to pepper a couple of them in my plays. No. 7 Whistlejacket was 4-5 when second to next-out winner Shadow of Light in a Group 1 at Newmarket. No. 8 Ecoro Sieg is one of many Japan-based horses at this year’s Breeders’ Cup, and buzz among those who follow racing in Japan is that this Kentucky-bred is one of their better chances to score a dub.

PICKS: 9-1

There are two obvious choices here with Grade 1 winners Scottish Lassie and Immersive (the morning-line third choice, the Bob Baffert-trained Non Compliant, is scratching). My primary reason for opposing these two is that neither has run particularly fast relative to what usually wins this type of race.

So it’s a bit of a gamble to take the unknown commodity here in No. 9 American Bikini, but an American Pharoah filly out of a Bernardini mare winning a 5-furlong race has my attention since that is a classic pedigree. Jockey Ryan Moore is an interesting addition. He is one of the best in the world (if not the best), but he has yet to win a Breeders’ Cup race on dirt.

No. 1 Vodka With a Twist is an interesting long shot to me, drawing the rail for her first try at two turns. She’s a big price and doesn’t have to win to make some money on her running well.

PICK: 1

Our lone single on Friday is No. 1 Lake Victoria, undefeated in four starts and a potential international superstar, as the sky seems to be the limit for this Frankel filly trained by Aidan O’Brien.

She has yet to go beyond 7 furlongs and actually cut back to 6 furlongs last out for her second consecutive Group 1 score. There is no reason to think this two-turn mile won’t be in her wheelhouse, though, as she has already shown versatility by winning races both gate-to-wire and from midpack while sprinting.

Moore will have some decisions to make with the rail draw, but we saw him work a rail ride aboard Auguste Rodin last year in the Turf, so he’s not afraid to make a tight move if needed.

This is my most likely winner of the weekend, and if she loses so do I.

PICKS: 10-5-8-6

A couple of forces collide in this 1 1/16-mile race at Del Mar, as its main track is known to be very kind to speed, which puts a horse like No. 10 Chancer McPatrick up against it, but there is a lot of speed in this race, so something has to give.

From a talent standpoint, I definitely prefer Chancer McPatrick to morning-line favorite No. 1 East Avenue. They’ve had similar career arcs to date, including notching Grade 1 wins in their last start before this, but Ragozin Data says Chancer McPatrick is faster (and it’s not particularly close).

With all the speed in here, I’m willing to take a short(ish) price that Chancer McPatrick gets to run a similar race as we’ve seen in his last two Grade 1 wins.

PICKS: 4-11-9

Much like I identifed the Speakeasy as a potential key race for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, the Summer Stakes earned a similar mantle for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf.

Unfortunately, the top two from the Summer won’t be anywhere near the price as the Speakeasy exacta, but that’s OK.

I’ll put the Summer runner-up on top here at a slightly longer price, as I think No. 4 Al Qudra and No. 11 New Century ran similar races with the latter getting the nod last time, but there’s nothing to suggest that would be the result more often than not. I.e., they’re evenly matched so why not take the longer price?

No. 9 The Waco Kid merits a long-shot nod as an international coming in off a win at a very big price.

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