Can Trump Government's Potential Crackdown on E-Commerce Shipments Threaten the Air Cargo Industry?

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As the United States prepares for a transition in leadership, experts worry that a potential policy shift on e-commerce shipments could significantly impact the air cargo industry. The anticipated policy shift, led by soon-to-be President of the United States, Donald Trump, is expected to tighten regulations on imports under the “de minimis” exemption—a rule allowing goods valued under $800 to enter the U.S. without duties or stringent customs checks. While this exemption currently enables fast, low-cost e-commerce shipments by air, a policy shift targeting de minimis imports could disrupt the business model that underpins much of the global air cargo sector’s e-commerce volume.

It is anticipated that if Trump’s administration continues the regulatory direction planned by the Biden administration, the de minimis exemption could be severely curtailed. Any goods subject to trade enforcement actions, including those under Sections 301, 201, or 232, would be excluded from the current de minimis benefit. For the air cargo industry, which has thrived on expedited shipments of small, high-turnover items, the impact could be substantial.

This policy shift would hit Chinese imports particularly hard, threatening to diminish the volume of goods moving by air from Asia to the U.S. market. A change in de minimis rules would not only increase costs due to the imposition of tariffs—currently between 7% and 25%—but would also significantly increase customs filing costs, from around $15 to $50 per shipment. The potential rise in tariffs could lead to even higher rates under Trump, as he has floated tariffs as high as 60% on goods from China, which could further pressure the viability of airfreight as a cost-effective option.

The impact extends beyond financials. The ease and speed of de minimis shipments have made airfreight particularly appealing for e-commerce goods, allowing deliveries within a week. With the removal of this exemption, however, shipments may face extended customs processes, potentially doubling or tripling delivery times. As a result, e-commerce retailers could lose a key advantage in airfreight speed, which has been critical to their competitive edge.

While demand for e-commerce may continue regardless of these regulatory changes, logistical adjustments seem inevitable. Shippers, facing potentially longer delivery times and increased costs, may pivot to alternative strategies. Among these, building up warehousing and inventories near end destinations is already becoming a preferred solution. E-commerce companies are investing in storage facilities across North America, particularly in Mexico and, to a lesser extent, Canada. As part of a broader shift, ocean volumes from China to Mexico have surged, as companies establish secondary distribution networks that minimize the need for U.S. air imports.

The changes ahead could significantly reshape the air cargo industry’s landscape. Larger e-commerce players, with high-volume needs, will likely rely on adjusted strategies rather than transitioning all freight to air. Sea-air combinations may offer a compromise for smaller, time-sensitive shipments, but Levine suggests that only in cases of critical need will shippers make the leap to fully air-based options.

The potential regulatory shift brings both uncertainty and opportunity to the air cargo sector. While e-commerce demand remains strong, the logistical environment is evolving rapidly. As inventory management strategies adjust and trade policies potentially shift, air cargo’s role in the e-commerce supply chain will face pressures that may drive a reconfiguration of global logistics strategies in the years ahead.