Maersk Raises Earnings Guidance For Fourth Time in 2024

Maersk remains upbeat about the state of container shipping—and the industry’s ability keep generating profits in 2024.

The ocean carrier upwardly revised its outlook for global container market volume growth for the full year, saying it would expand at a 6 percent rate. Previously, the Danish logistics giant called for growth between 4 percent and 6 percent.

Maersk also raised its full-year guidance for the fourth time in the past six months, with the company now expecting earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) between $5.2 billion and $5.7 billion—significantly ahead of the former $3 billion to $5 billion rage. Anticipated EBITDA is $11 billion to $11.5 billion, while free cash flow forecasts are now set at $3 billion.

According to Maersk, the projections are on the back of strong third quarter results combined with the strong container market demand and the continuation of the Red Sea situation.

The company unveiled preliminary figures for the period, including $15.8 billion in revenue, underlying EBITDA of $4.8 billion and EBIT of $3.3 billion. Revenue would represent a 30 percent uptick this quarter.

A.P. Moller-Maersk will publish its full quarterly results on Oct. 31.

Maersk first raised its forecast in May, when it determined that container volume growth would be on the high end of its initial 2.5-percent-to-4.5-percent range. In a bigger illustration of how much the environment changed, the company’s EBIT was expected to range between no growth and a $5 billion loss when the container shipping firm made its 2024 projections in February.

The ongoing missile attacks from Yemen-based Houthi militants in the Red Sea have effectively forced ocean carriers to abandon the Red Sea route for Asia-to-Europe shipping since last winter, instead opting to take the longer route around southern Africa’s Cape of Good Hope.

Upon debuting its vessel-sharing agreement with Hapag-Lloyd starting Feb. 1, 2025, Maersk and its partner agreed to scrap Suez Canal-bound sailings, instead focusing entirely on the Cape of Good Hope network.

These near-yearlong diversions have been a boon for ocean freight rates as the carriers take longer trips and operate with less capacity. While container prices are down 45 percent from their July peak of $5,397 on average, per data from the Drewry World Container Index (WCI), they are still nearly double from the numbers when the vessels started to spurn the Suez Canal last December.

Since Dec. 14, average 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) have increased 111 percent to $3,216 per container.

The wider container shipping industry, excluding Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), generated $10.2 billion in net income in the 2024 second quarter, according to data collected by John McCown, on top of $5.4 billion in the first quarter of the year.

McCown estimated that the third quarter will see an even bigger windfall for the industry, expecting the companies to generate $14.7 billion in the period. For the fourth quarter, McCown forecasts that the fourth quarter would see an income total falling “between the second and third quarters.”

Maersk’s chief competitors are gobbling up more international real estate amid the bullish global container market. Brazil appears to be a hotter commodity for the ocean freight companies

A unit of MSC has acquired a controlling 56.5 percent stake in Brazilian port and logistics operator Wilson Sons from London-based parent Ocean Wilson Holdings for $768 million.

With the Wilson Sons deal, MSC gets container terminals in the Brazilian states of Bahian and Rio Grande do Sul, and a fleet of about 80 tugboats, which make up the largest fleet in the country. MSC also gets another 23 offshore support vessels flying the Brazilian flag, two offshore support bases, a customs logistics center and two shipyards.

The ocean carrier already jointly operates a container terminal in Santos, Brazil with Maersk. Last December, they announced plans to invest approximately $390 million in the container terminal over the coming years to boost its operational capacity by 40 percent.

MSC made the acquisition through subsidiary SAS Shipping Agencies Services. The transaction expected to complete during the second half of 2025.

MSC’s deal came on the heels of another ocean freight-related deal in Brazil, with CMA CGM acquiring a $1.2 billion, 48 percent stake in port terminal operator Santos Brasil Participacoes.

Santos Brasil runs the Tecon Santos terminal, which is Brazil’s and South America’s biggest, with capacity to handle about 2.5 million containers per year at the Santos port.

The French carrier has longer-term ambitions for the terminal, as it plans to launch a public offer for all other shares of the company within 30 days of the deal’s expected closure in the first quarter of 2025.

Receive Our Daily Newsletter & Special Offers