Donald Trump 2024 election win maps analysis for Kentucky

The Bluegrass State has 120 counties, and when you compare his results four years ago to Election Day this year, former President Donald Trump landed a better percentage of the vote in every single one.

It jumps out when you see it on the map, Western Kentucky University politics professor Jeffrey Budziak said. But when you look at the bigger picture, it makes more sense, he added. And that's because Kentucky's rightward shift looks a lot like nearly every other state.

"He just made growth everywhere," Budziak said. "The fact that he made growth in Kentucky, too, shouldn't be super surprising."

That growth will put Trump back in the White House. Vice President Kamala Harris, his Democratic opponent, conceded Wednesday and pledged a peaceful transfer of power, after a riot at the U.S. Capitol four years ago following Trump's 2020 loss upended that process.

He wasn't the only Republican celebrating, either. Republicans in Frankfort kept their 80-20 lead over Democrats in the House, flipping one seat in Lexington while losing one other nearby seat with a candidate who was running for the first time. They'll also keep a strong majority in the Kentucky Senate.

It was "a really good political night for Republicans here in the state as well as nationally," Kentucky Senate President Robert Stivers said the morning after the election, and one that will help shape the state and nation for years to come.

He expects a GOP candidate to win the state's 2026 U.S. Senate race — "it will either be Senator (Mitch) McConnell or a Republican replacement for Senator McConnell" — and to win the next race for governor, when term-limited Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear's time in office ends in 2027.

"The direction is pretty clear," Stivers told reporters. "It is shown by both the performances at our constitutional statewide offices, our legislative numbers and the vote at the federal level."

In his weekly press conference Thursday, Beshear acknowledged Trump's "lopsided" win. But he argued Democrats keeping their seven state Senate seats and 20 House seats (though minority caucus chair Cherlynn Stevenson was ousted) showed Kentuckians "expect us to work together and continue to get things done."

Five takeaways:2024 election in Kentucky includes GOP gains and a referendum on 'school choice'

Under another Trump presidency in the meantime, Stivers predicted, expect investments in coal, natural gas and "more United States-types of feedstocks for energy," along with a crackdown on the U.S. border with Mexico and other issues the former president emphasized in his latest campaign. Trump ran on the economy and inflation, Stivers added, and it paid off.

"People are worried about the economy," he said. "The cost of groceries are up, the cost of fuel is up, the cost of paying your mortgage is up, and people speak at the polls with their pocketbook. That’s where I think he has seen the message that has resonated, and resonated in heavily blue states, not just red."

The economy wasn't the only reason Trump won, Budziak said, but it was clearly a "huge factor," even though inflation has dropped significantly since its peak two years ago. Incumbent parties around the world have lost seats in elections this year, and inflation was an international issue for economies, he noted — "I don't think you could write any story about this election without talking about voter dissatisfaction with economic conditions."

Democrats, meanwhile, did not have the same level of support they've seen in recent years in Kentucky. Voter turnout in areas critical to the party lagged.

Jefferson County, the lone region of the state that has elected a Democrat to Congress in U.S. Rep Morgan McGarvey, had a voter turnout this year of 56.7%. In 2020, that figure sat at 61.4%, a shift of nearly 31,000 voters. It was the same story in Fayette County — the home of Lexington had a voter turnout of 57% this year after reporting a 61.5% turnout in 2020, a difference that surpassed 13,000 voters.

Statewide, voter turnout dipped from 60.3% in 2020 to 58.8% this year, a drop of about 62,000 voters. Jefferson and Fayette counties, the only two in the state that Harris won, were responsible for just over 70% of that total.

In Louisville's South End, where the GOP has a greater presence, Republicans pulled off three wins in Metro Council races, including two that ousted a pair of longtime Democratic members of the chamber. The party now controls 12 of 26 seats.

Republican Councilman Scott Reed sees the gains as a sign the party "can actually go on offense for a change." Council President Markus Winkler, a Democrat, touted the chamber's nonpartisan history but speculated national issues such as the economy played a role in his party's losses, along with local issues such as crime in Louisville and frustration with the city-county merger in 2003.

"Slightly damper Democratic enthusiasm" this year may have hurt voter turnout, Budziak said, but it's hard to say for sure based on a single case study. And the 2020 election, held during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic and with a much higher emphasis on early and absentee voting, is a difficult data point to use in comparison with another election.

But in the end, Budziak said, Trump's county-by-county results in Kentucky paint a clear picture of his support — and we aren't alone.

"Trump outperformed his 2020 totals on basically all demographics," he said. "They're part of a broader trend where Trump just really improved everywhere."

Reporter Eleanor McCrary contributed. Reach Lucas Aulbach at [email protected].